Enrollment, Graduation, and Dropout Trends in Nepalese Higher Education: A Mathematical and Statistical Analysis

Abstract

Enrollment expansion in Nepalese higher education has coincided with fluctuating graduation output, highlighting concerns about student persistence and timely completion. This study examines enrollment and graduation trends alongside evidence on student attrition using secondary administrative data from the University Grants Commission’s Education Management Information System series for 2016/17–2023/24, with comparable observations available for 2016/17–2021/22 and 2023/24. Mathematical and statistical indicators assessed enrollment, female participation, graduate output, staffing, campus provision, student–teacher ratios, and graduation-to-enrollment ratios. Total enrollment increased from 371,184 to 633,053, corresponding to an approximate compound annual growth rate of 7.9% over seven years. Female enrollment rose from 195,133 to 358,140, increasing women’s share from approximately 52.6% to 56.6%. Graduate numbers declined from 90,922 in 2016/17 to 79,541 in 2019/20, fell sharply to 37,619 in 2020/21, and recovered to 97,564 in 2023/24. This pandemic-era decline is interpreted as a disruption in the academic pipeline rather than a direct indicator of changing student demand. A central methodological finding is that the UGC trend tables do not provide a consistent national cohort-based dropout rate; consequently, differences between enrollment and graduate numbers were not classified as dropout rates. Instead, cautious non-completion proxies were triangulated with campus-level attrition studies and evidence concerning migration, financial pressure, academic difficulty, limited student support, and prolonged degree completion. The study concludes that enrollment growth alone is insufficient to assess higher education performance and should be examined alongside graduation output, persistence, and labor-market relevance. Its contribution lies in clarifying the limits of aggregate indicators and identifying the need for a national student-level longitudinal data system linking admission, registration, examination attempts, progression, graduation, withdrawal, migration, and re-entry to enable survival analysis and cohort-specific dropout estimation. Policy priorities include stronger advising and early-warning systems, curriculum modernization, reduced administrative delays, improved financial support, and responses to migration-related opportunity costs.