Beyond Sectarianism: Strategic Autonomy, Religious Identity, and the Future of Gulf Security

Abstract

Reports suggesting closer diplomatic and economic engagement between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iran amid regional tensions have renewed debate about Gulf security, the durability of American influence, and the growing importance of strategic autonomy among middle powers. This article examines the UAE’s evolving approach toward Iran and its implications for the future of regional security. The analysis draws on realist theory, regional security complex theory, and strategic autonomy theory to interpret these developments within the changing international order. It argues that the UAE’s approach reflects a broader tendency among Gulf states to prioritize pragmatic diplomacy, economic resilience, and regional stability over rigid bloc alignment. The discussion also considers the implications for Africa and the wider Global South, where states navigate multipolarity and shifting centers of influence. The article concludes that American influence remains significant, while Gulf states increasingly exercise independent foreign policy choices that may reshape the Middle Eastern security architecture. By connecting regional diplomatic engagement with strategic autonomy, the analysis contributes to debates on Gulf security and the foreign policy choices of states navigating an evolving multipolar order.