Digital Accounting Reform, Structural Instability, and Corruption Dynamics in Nigeria: A Robust Empirical Analysis

Abstract

Digital transformation has become central to Nigeria’s public financial management reforms through initiatives such as the Treasury Single Account (TSA), Government Integrated Financial Management Information System (GIFMIS), and electronic procurement platforms. However, empirical evidence regarding their effectiveness in improving transparency and reducing corruption remains methodologically limited. This study integrates institution-level non-parametric analysis with macro-level structural-break modeling to evaluate whether digital accounting reforms were associated with changes in transparency and corruption dynamics in Nigeria from 2001 to 2023. Institutional data from 20 federal agencies were analyzed using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Annual national time-series data on the Corruption Perceptions Index and other governance indicators were examined using regression models incorporating Chow and Bai–Perron structural-break tests, heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors, quantile regression, and bootstrap inference. The findings reveal statistically significant post-2015 improvements in transparency and audit compliance, accompanied by reductions in financial irregularities. Structural-break analysis identified a significant regime shift temporally aligned with the implementation of the TSA and GIFMIS reforms. Robustness analyses involving alternative break dates, recursive stability tests, bootstrap inference, and quantile regression supported the consistency of these results. The findings indicate that digital accounting reforms were associated with meaningful changes in Nigeria’s corruption trajectory. This study contributes a robust empirical framework for evaluating governance reforms and demonstrates the value of combining distribution-free and break-adjusted methods in public financial management research.