Innovation Inputs, Outputs and the Ambiguity of Conversion Efficiency: Four Developing Economies, 2020–2025

Abstract

Governments across the developing world have expanded policy support for innovation, yet the relationship between innovation-system inputs and outputs remains insufficiently understood outside OECD contexts. This study aims to compare the innovation-system performance of South Africa, Kenya, and Morocco, which represent markedly different policy models, with that of Viet Nam, a lower-middle-income economy widely regarded as an innovation overperformer, while examining the diagnostic meaning of innovation conversion efficiency. Adopting a deliberately model-free comparative descriptive approach, the study employs no econometric estimation and makes no causal claims. Publicly verifiable secondary indicators were obtained from Global Innovation Index economy profiles for 2020–2025 and supplemented with UNESCO and World Bank research expenditure data and venture capital tracker data. Ordinal rankings were transformed into bounded percentile scores to construct an Input Capability Score and an Output Performance Score, whose ratio generates a Conversion Efficiency Ratio representing output performance relative to measured input capability. The findings reveal four distinct trajectories. Viet Nam was the only economy to increase both input capability and output performance while its conversion ratio moved toward parity, indicating input-led maturation. Morocco recorded the largest output gain among the four economies, whereas South Africa exhibited declining input capability alongside output recovery. Kenya registered the highest conversion ratio in the sample; however, this reflected a shrinking input base rather than strengthening innovation capability. These findings demonstrate that a high conversion ratio cannot, in isolation, be interpreted as evidence of a stronger innovation system because similar ratios may arise from markedly different underlying input–output trajectories. The study contributes a transparent descriptive framework for comparing innovation-system performance in developing economies and highlights the importance of interpreting conversion efficiency jointly with changes in input capability when assessing innovation policy and system development.