A Study on Alzhemier Disease in Takum, Taraba State, Nigeria: An ARIMA Model Approach
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42-57
Digital Object Identifier:
10.58578/mjms.v3i1.4113
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Authors:
Clement Akobi1*, Danjuma Idi2, Ibrahim Michael3, Mathew Stephen4 
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Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication.
Main Article Content
Abstract
Alzheimer’s disease, a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, represents a significant and growing public health burden, particularly as life expectancy increases worldwide. In sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, the disease's prevalence is rising due to aging populations and urbanized lifestyles that elevate risk factors for cognitive decline. This study investigates the trends and projected incidence of Alzheimer’s disease in Takum, Taraba State, Nigeria. The research utilizes patient records from General Hospital Takum, spanning from 2012 to 2021. Following diagnostic tests and data transformations, the ARIMA(1,2,0) model was selected as the best fit for predicting future case counts. The findings reveal a steady increase in Alzheimer’s cases, consistent with global patterns, highlighting the need for proactive measures in healthcare planning. The study thus recommends the need for increased public awareness, investment in diagnostic infrastructure, and support systems for caregivers.
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Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
References
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