Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) Outbreaks in Maize Production Systems of Northern Nigeria Using Climate and Remote Sensing Data

Abstract

Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) poses a substantial threat to maize production across sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Nigeria, where climatic variability intensifies the risk of pest outbreaks. This study developed and evaluated machine learning models for predicting Fall Armyworm outbreaks in northern Nigeria using integrated climate and remote sensing variables. A retrospective modeling framework was applied to simulated but biologically constrained datasets covering a six-year period (2019–2024) and comprising temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and vegetation condition indices. Three supervised learning algorithms—Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Gradient Boosting—were trained and validated using five-fold cross-validation. Gradient Boosting achieved the highest predictive accuracy at 92.8%, followed by Random Forest at 89.2% and Support Vector Machine at 84.6%. Temperature, relative humidity, and NDVI emerged as the most influential predictors of outbreak occurrence, while the integration of satellite-derived vegetation indices improved overall model performance. These findings demonstrate the potential of combining machine learning with remote sensing data to develop scalable and cost-effective early warning systems for agricultural pest management. However, because the models were developed using simulated data, their predictive validity requires confirmation using field-collected observational data. The proposed framework contributes to data-driven pest surveillance by providing a basis for anticipating outbreaks and supporting timely decision-making in maize production systems.