Temporal Dynamics and Gender Disparities in Malaria, Typhoid, and Yellow Fever in Nigeria (2018–2023)
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1263-1285
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10.58578/mikailalsys.v3i3.7352
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Authors:Olutunde Michael Ajao1*, Alfred Ayo Ayenigba2, Oluwaseun Ayomikun Aina3
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Abstract
This study examines temporal trends, gender disparities, and spatial distribution patterns of malaria, typhoid, and yellow fever in Nigeria using gender-disaggregated data from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) spanning 2018–2023. Drawing on 72 months of case counts, the analysis employed time-series decomposition, chi-square tests, and negative binomial regression modeling. Malaria exhibited moderate seasonal fluctuations with a peak in 2021 (35,000 cases), likely influenced by climatic variability. Typhoid presented sharp episodic spikes, notably in 2020 (15,000 cases), suggesting sanitation-related outbreaks. Yellow fever cases increased steadily by 45%, potentially reflecting enhanced surveillance or expanding endemicity. Statistically significant gender disparities were observed (χ² = 240.38, p < 0.001), with males disproportionately affected by typhoid and females slightly overrepresented in malaria cases. Model fitting indicated that malaria (p = 0.834) and yellow fever (p = 0.845) conformed well to the negative binomial distribution, while typhoid did not (p = 0.018), underscoring its irregular, outbreak-prone nature. These findings underscore the need for differentiated public health responses, including sustained vector control for malaria, improved sanitation infrastructure to curb typhoid, expanded yellow fever vaccination coverage, and gender-responsive, data-driven intervention strategies.
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