Impact of Water and Air Transportation on Agricultural Output in Nigeria: 1990 to 2024

Abstract

Transportation supports agricultural production and farmers’ livelihoods by facilitating the movement of goods and people. This study examined the relationships between water transportation, air transportation, and agricultural output in Nigeria from 1990 to 2024. Secondary data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and an error correction model. Air and water transportation became stationary after first differencing, whereas agricultural output remained nonstationary in the reported tests. Descriptive statistics indicated substantial variability and leptokurtosis in agricultural output, while water transportation exhibited distributional characteristics closer to normality. The ARDL(3,4,0) model, estimated over 1994–2024, showed positive and statistically significant associations between air transportation and agricultural output through contemporaneous and lagged terms. Water transportation was negatively associated with agricultural output. The model yielded a high coefficient of determination (R² = .999), while the significant negative error correction coefficient of −0.63 suggested adjustment toward the estimated long-run equilibrium. However, the unresolved integration order of agricultural output warrants caution in interpreting the long-run estimates. Overall, the findings identify contrasting relationships between transportation modes and agricultural output, providing evidence to inform transport infrastructure policy. The study recommends increased government expenditure on maintaining air and water transportation networks to facilitate the movement of agricultural goods and passengers and support agricultural development.