A Statistical and Mathematical Assessment of Higher Education Quality in Nepal

Abstract

Higher education is central to the development of skilled human capital in Nepal; however, despite substantial expansion in universities, campuses, and student enrolment, persistent concerns remain regarding institutional quality, resource adequacy, research performance, and equity across regions. This study aims to assess the quality of higher education in Nepal through a statistical and mathematical framework applied to a purposively selected set of constituent, affiliated, and community campuses representing three university systems. A composite Higher Education Quality Index (HEQI) was constructed from five weighted sub-indices: Student–Faculty Ratio, Physical and Pedagogical Resources, Quality Assurance and Accreditation Status, Gross Enrolment and Retention, and Research and Publication Intensity, using min–max normalisation and expert-elicited weighting. Primary perception data were collected through a 32-item Likert-scale instrument adapted from the SERVQUAL and HEdPERF service-quality frameworks, tested for internal consistency using Cronbach’s alpha, and analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, one-way analysis of variance, chi-square tests of independence, and multiple linear regression. Secondary data on enrolment, financing, and staffing from the University Grants Commission’s Education Management Information System reports for 2013/14–2023/24 were used to contextualize and triangulate the primary findings. The regression results indicate that faculty qualification and research intensity are the strongest statistically significant predictors of perceived institutional quality, followed by physical infrastructure, whereas enrolment growth shows a negligible and, in some model specifications, negative association with quality after controlling for resource availability. The HEQI further reveals substantial inter-institutional and inter-provincial disparities, with older constituent campuses in Bagmati Province scoring markedly higher than community campuses in Karnali and Sudurpashchim Provinces. The study concludes that improving higher-education quality in Nepal requires resource-allocation formulas and accreditation incentives linked to measurable and weighted performance indicators rather than enrolment size alone. The proposed HEQI contributes a replicable quantitative framework that can support the University Grants Commission and universities in continuous institutional quality assessment, monitoring, and policy-oriented resource allocation.