Statistical Model for the Occurrence of Typhoid Fever in Takum, Taraba State, Nigeria: An Arima Model Approach
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722-741
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Aug 24, 2024
Digital Object Identifier:
10.58578/alsys.v4i6.3580
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Stephen Mathew1*, Danjuma Idi2 
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Abstract
This study analyzes Typhoid Fever incidence at General Hospital Takum from 2012 to 2021 using ARIMA model. The initial data was non-stationary, necessitating differencing to achieve stationarity. The ARIMA (4,1,1) model, selected based on AIC, AICC, and BIC criteria, showed parameters within stationarity and invertibility constraints. Diagnostic tests validated the model's robustness, with Box-Ljung (Chi-Square = 6.7435, p = 0.7598), Shapiro-Wilk (W = 0.9754, p = 0.1213), and ARCH-LM (Chi-Square = 5.8762, p = 0.8176) results supporting its adequacy. Forecasts for the next 24 months indicate a significant upward trend in Typhoid Fever cases. The study recommends among others a regular update to the model with new data to ensure accuracy, consideration of additional variables that may influence Typhoid Fever trends, and implementation of targeted public health interventions based on forecasted trends to mitigate the rising incidence.
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Typhoid; Diagnostic; ARIMA; Stationarity; Box-Ljung; Forecasting
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Mathew, S., & Idi, D. (2024). Statistical Model for the Occurrence of Typhoid Fever in Takum, Taraba State, Nigeria: An Arima Model Approach. ALSYS, 4(6), 722-741. https://doi.org/10.58578/alsys.v4i6.3580
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
References
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Olowolafe, T. A., Agosile, O. F., Akinpelu, A. O., Aderinto, N., Wada, O. Z., & Olawade, D. B. (2024). Malaria and typhoid fever co-infection: a retrospective analysis of University Hospital records in Nigeria. Malaria Journal, 23.
Oyenuga, A. Y., & Olanrewaju, G. O. (2023). Statistical Analysis of the Rate of Typhoid Fever. African Scholars Journal of Science Innovation & Tech. Research, 30(9), 197-210
Shapiro, S. S., & Wilk, M. B. (1965). An analysis of variance test for normality (complete samples). Biometrika, 52(3-4), 591-611.
Sinha, A., Sazawal, S., Kumar, R., Sood, S., Reddaiah, V. P., Singh, B., ... & Bhan, M. K. (1999). Typhoid fever in children aged less than 5 years. The Lancet, 354(9180), 734-737.
Vale, B. M. P. D. (2022). Emerging and reemerging zoonoses in the 21st century: an epidemiological approach in the scope of the One Health concept.
Anderson, K. B. D. (2002). Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach Springer-Verlag New York. NY, USA.
Bhan, M. K., Bahl, R., & Bhatnagar, S. (2005). Typhoid and paratyphoid fever. The Lancet, 366(9487), 749-762.
Birhanie, M., Tessema, B., Ferede, G., Endris, M., & Enawgaw, B. (2014). Malaria, Typhoid Fever, and Their Coinfection among Febrile Patients at a Rural Health Center in Northwest Ethiopia: A Cross‐Sectional Study. Advances in medicine, 2014(1), 531074.
Box, G. E., & Pierce, D. A. (1970). Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive-integrated moving average time series models. Journal of the American statistical Association, 65(332), 1509-1526.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 987-1007.
Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice. OTexts.
Jenkins, G. M., & Box, G. E. (1976). Time series analysis: forecasting and control.
Kaigama, A., & Madaki, U. Y. (2023). Statistical Spatial Modelling for the Treatment of Typhoid (Enteric) Fever in Maiduguri, Borno State, nigeria. International Journal of Nature and Science Advance Research.
Kaigama, A., & Madaki, U. Y. (2023). Time Series Analysis for The Treatment of Typhoid (Enteric) Fever in Maiduguri: Using Arima Model. Square: Journal of Mathematics and Mathematics Education, 5(1), 11-22.
Kaluse, P. S., Bhatt, N., & Bankar, N. (2021). Study of Typhoid Fever: A Review. Journal of Pharmaceutical Research International, 33(39A), 286-291.
Kim, C. L., Cruz Espinoza, L. M., Vannice, K. S., Tadesse, B. T., Owusu-Dabo, E., Rakotozandrindrainy, R., ... & Marks, F. (2022). The burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa: a perspective. Research and reports in tropical medicine, 1-9.
Kim, J. H., Im, J., Parajulee, P., Holm, M., Cruz Espinoza, L. M., Poudyal, N., ... & Marks, F. (2019). A systematic review of typhoid fever occurrence in Africa. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 69(Supplement_6), S492-S498.
Kwala, K. H., & Asika, A. I. (2020). Preval_ence of typhoid infection among pregnant women attending Specialist Hospital Yola, Adamawa state, Nigeria. Journal of Applied Life Sciences International, 23(12), 93-101.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178.
Maganga, R. (2019). Antimicrobial resistance in commensal Escherichia coli isolated from poultry along a gradient of intensification of poultry production in the Northern Zone of Tanzania (Doctoral dissertation, University of Glasgow).
Masuet-Aumatell, C., & Atouguia, J. (2021). Typhoid fever infection–Antibiotic resistance and vaccination strategies: A narrative review. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, 40, 101946.
Mukhopadhyay, B., Sur, D., Gupta, S. S., & Ganguly, N. K. (2019). Typhoid fever: Control & challenges in India. Indian Journal of Medical Research, 150(5), 437-447.
Neupane, D. P., Dulal, H. P., & Song, J. (2021). Enteric fever diagnosis: current challenges and future directions. Pathogens, 10(4), 410.
Obulezi, O. J., Chidimma, N. N., Igbokwe, C. P., & Anabike, I. C. (2023). Statistical analysis on diagnosed cases of malaria and typhoid fever in Enugu-Nigeria. GSJ, 11(6), 314-323.
Ogolo, I. M., & Nkpordee, L. (2022). Forecasting the Trend of Typhoid Fever in Selected Teaching Hospital in Awka, Anambra State. African Journal of Advances in Science and Technology Research, 4(1), 25-38.
Ogunlade, T. O., Ogunmiloro, O. M., & Fatoyinbo, G. E. (2021). On the deterministic and stochastic model applications to typhoid fever disease dynamics. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series (Vol. 1734, No. 1, p. 012048). IOP Publishing.
Oladipupo, O. A., & Matthew, O. J. (2020). Simulating the transmission dynamics and control of typhoid fever in Ibadan, Nigeria.
Olopoenia, L. A., & King, A. L. (2000). Widal agglutination test− 100 years later: still plagued by controversy. Postgraduate medical journal, 76(892), 80-84.
Olowolafe, T. A., Agosile, O. F., Akinpelu, A. O., Aderinto, N., Wada, O. Z., & Olawade, D. B. (2024). Malaria and typhoid fever co-infection: a retrospective analysis of University Hospital records in Nigeria. Malaria Journal, 23.
Oyenuga, A. Y., & Olanrewaju, G. O. (2023). Statistical Analysis of the Rate of Typhoid Fever. African Scholars Journal of Science Innovation & Tech. Research, 30(9), 197-210
Shapiro, S. S., & Wilk, M. B. (1965). An analysis of variance test for normality (complete samples). Biometrika, 52(3-4), 591-611.
Sinha, A., Sazawal, S., Kumar, R., Sood, S., Reddaiah, V. P., Singh, B., ... & Bhan, M. K. (1999). Typhoid fever in children aged less than 5 years. The Lancet, 354(9180), 734-737.
Vale, B. M. P. D. (2022). Emerging and reemerging zoonoses in the 21st century: an epidemiological approach in the scope of the One Health concept.